Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x944e…8c94
politics · 119 markets active 12h ago
3.5score
+$60,333 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38,079 · open +$19,314
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 42 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,600
7 days+$38
14 days+$13,553
30 days+$33,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $37,929 $48,911 +$10,981 (+29%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 97¢ $17,332 $19,851 +$2,520 (+15%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 100¢ $11,698 $15,476 +$3,778 (+32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $5,680 $7,789 +$2,109 (+37%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $6,006 $5,065 −$941 (-16%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 81¢ 99¢ $4,050 $4,930 +$880 (+22%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 59¢ 88¢ $3,222 $4,763 +$1,542 (+48%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $3,423 $4,440 +$1,017 (+30%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $3,289 $3,222 −$67 (-2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $2,470 $2,952 +$482 (+20%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $2,011 $2,375 +$363 (+18%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 40¢ 100¢ $889 $2,222 +$1,333 (+150%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $1,838 $2,116 +$278 (+15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ 52¢ $1,700 $1,750 +$50 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $1,500 $1,487 −$12 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $1,190 $1,274 +$84 (+7%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $952 $1,139 +$187 (+20%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1,155 $1,040 −$115 (-10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 88¢ $570 $875 +$305 (+54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $870 $875 +$5 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 44¢ $660 $870 +$210 (+32%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $737 $758 +$21 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $698 $722 +$24 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $648 $688 +$40 (+6%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $530 $615 +$85 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $933 +$1,289 +138%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,533 +$689 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $733 −$733 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $800 +$22 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $889 +$1,333 +150%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $902 −$307 -34%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $187 +$14 +8%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $2,860 −$2,009 -70%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1,378 −$1,378 -100%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $570 +$126 +22%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1,400 +$822 +59%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,978 +$244 +12%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $4,136 +$1,675 +40%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $8,721 +$1,294 +15%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6,515 +$2,653 +41%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $2,830 +$1,730 +61%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $2,717 −$352 -13%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,401 −$508 -36%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $3,405 +$420 +12%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $1,804 +$196 +11%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $2,940 +$560 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $830 +$170 +20%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $170 +$830 +488%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $4,150 +$850 +20%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $3,364 +$5,875 +175%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 28 $925 +$63 +7%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 28 $5,828 +$540 +9%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $1,806 +$194 +11%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $134 +$140 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $778 +$111 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $222 +$111 +50%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $3,616 +$6,731 +186%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $8,180 +$6,959 +85%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 19 $168 +$207 +123%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $853 −$3,541 -415%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $5,143 +$1,213 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $8,370 +$1,722 +21%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 16 $2,815 +$325 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $34,338 +$1,480 +4%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 16 $5,939 +$3,207 +54%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026? May 15 $1,807 +$508 +28%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,686 −$2,670 -99%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 10 $35 +$23 +65%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? May 10 $496 +$304 +61%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? May 10 $645 +$855 +133%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 05 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% +$42,404
other 13% +$16,232
world 8% −$289
sports 3% −$1,825
crypto 1% +$872
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1,700 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,382 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $74 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $209 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $65 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $97 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $376 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $84 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $68 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $98 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $150 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $58 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 45 +26.4% +14.4% 76% 64% +12.2%
≤90d 97 +20.0% +8.5% 60% 49% +7.1%
all 97 +20.0% +8.5% 60% 49% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 49% +7.1%
10% -1.9% 35% -3.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.3% 28% -12.5%
20% -20.0% 22% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138,391.95 · official $138,393.46 (match) · 3500 history records