Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x944e…0379
sports · 333 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$452
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses193 / 136
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)329 / 333
History coverage81d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 329 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $305 $296 −$9 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $124 $129 +$5 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Falcons Force 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Leviatán Esports 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Sentinels 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FaZe 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs G2 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B NIP 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO5) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Playoffs KRÜ Spark 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 FlyQuest 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Legacy 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Dplus KIA 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $76 +$12 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $2 +$2 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1 +$2 +180%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 30 $2 +$1 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $2 $0 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 P May 30 $2 +$2 +87%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 +$1 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $5 +$3 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 29 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S May 29 $2 +$1 +44%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 26 $5 +$4 +74%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $1 −$1 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 21 $3 +$1 +35%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $2 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $2 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$13
other 30% −$30
politics 17% +$17
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 2¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1 20h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 68¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 40¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 16¢ $5 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 12¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $85 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $125 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 30¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 49¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $2 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 57¢ $2 6d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $2 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 100¢ $4 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 55¢ $2 6d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 79¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL M80 100¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 54¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 51¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 60¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 100¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 72¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 78¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 36¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.5% +2.7% 70% 70% +1.6%
≤30d 70 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 56% -7.9%
≤90d 329 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 58% -8.4%
all 329 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 58% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 58% -8.4%
10% -17.6% 53% -17.2%
15% -25.6% 41% -25.2%
20% -32.9% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.70 · official $451.70 (match) · 763 history records