Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x944e…96a8 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized +$35 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$67
14 days+$66
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$106
other 32% −$316
politics 28% +$378
world 5% −$80
finance 2% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 50% -17.1%
≤30d 24 -5.5% -14.5% 58% 46% -19.8%
≤90d 47 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 47% -14.6%
all 53 -3.0% -12.3% 55% 49% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 49% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 45% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 36% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$106 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage103d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 18¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $71 +$94 +132%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 +$155 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $101 +$63 +62%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $152 −$150 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $203 +$142 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 May 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 25 $202 +$120 +60%
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 25 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 18 $100 +$41 +41%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 18 $100 +$41 +41%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 18 $300 +$109 +36%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $100 −$99 -99%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$152 +152%
Will Wout Van Aert win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 12 $82 −$71 -87%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $100 −$35 -35%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 27 $200 +$231 +115%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Mar 27 $300 +$299 +100%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 22 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 22 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris mun Mar 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 17 $100 +$304 +304%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $150 −$27 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $102 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $185 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 74¢ $101 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $31 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $20 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 91¢ $165 11d
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 39¢ $102 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $101 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 70¢ $101 18d
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 97¢ $100 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 35¢ $51 18d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 63¢ $303 24d
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Under 3.5 $2 24d
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 49¢ $102 24d
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Under 4.5 76¢ $101 24d
Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Under 4.5 77¢ $101 24d
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 24d
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 94¢ $100 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.05 · official $223.05 (match) · 109 history records