Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x944f…0da6 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$674 (-5%) realized −$674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days−$673
14 days−$1,015
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$493
other 38% −$293
crypto 5% −$1
politics 1% −$93
world 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.3% -8.4% 46% 43% -15.8%
≤30d 59 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 44% -15.8%
≤90d 59 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 44% -15.8%
all 60 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 43% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 43% -16.4%
10% -17.6% 42% -24.4%
15% -25.6% 40% -31.7%
20% -32.9% 30% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$128 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage361d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 −$243 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$207 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$73 +36%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$32 -32%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$78 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +55%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$30 -29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 +$52 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $152 −$76 -50%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$97 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$68 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $202 −$7 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 −$4 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$93 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$101 -66%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$35 -34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$45 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$119 -58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$106 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$216 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$13 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $506 +$302 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$53 -53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $153 +$204 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$161 -79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $278 −$126 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$60 -60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $689 −$398 -58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$166 +109%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$7 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 −$128 -63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $253 −$206 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$203 -80%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $505 +$215 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 −$150 -59%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $797 −$722 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$67 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$60 -54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $528 −$491 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $127 +$87 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $119 −$11 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $60 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $511 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $102 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $308 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $275 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $69 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $179 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $157 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $72 27h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 28h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $118 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $76 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $66 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $152 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $299 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $270 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records