Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x944f…7044 world 30 markets active 21h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1
world 29% −$2
politics 23% +$1
sports 9% +$25
crypto 6% +$1
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +49.4% +35.1% 14% 14% -10.3%
≤30d 13 +27.0% +14.9% 23% 8% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +27.0% +14.9% 23% 8% -10.0%
all 30 +14.1% +3.2% 50% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 7% -7.4%
10% -6.6% 7% -16.3%
15% -15.7% 7% -24.4%
20% -23.9% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.02 per $1 lost it wins $12.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage478d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $77 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $28 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $70 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $67 +$1 +1%
Tulane vs. Wichita State Mar 20 $42 +$25 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $1 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $31 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $22 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $9 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $31 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $31 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $26 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records