Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9450…a00a
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$68 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage238d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 0 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14? No 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $122 −$7 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $40 +$9 +23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 13 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 11 $61 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $24 −$5 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Nov 08 $74 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7AM ET Nov 07 $67 +$7 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 05 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 05 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $59 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 02 $54 +$5 +9%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 01 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 31 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? Oct 29 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during K Oct 29 $29 +$10 +33%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 28 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31? Oct 28 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 28 $12 +$10 +88%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 24 $22 −$9 -42%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 24 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31? Oct 24 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1PM ET Oct 24 $30 −$23 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $17 +$10 +60%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? Oct 23 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $47 +$21 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Oct 22 $43 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 22 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Oct 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Oct 21 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Oct 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 21 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 21 $10 −$7 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$84
crypto 18% +$2
politics 13% +$12
world 11% −$5
sports 2% +$11
tech 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 3¢ $23 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 5¢ $36 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $43 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 1h
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 77¢ $37 31d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 62¢ $30 32d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 33d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 33d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 34d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 38d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY Yes 94¢ $57 212d
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14? BUY No 12¢ $5 213d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 70¢ $62 213d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $61 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 215d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL No 91¢ $9 215d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL Yes 20¢ $17 215d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL Yes 34¢ $2 215d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL Yes 34¢ $9 215d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL Yes 34¢ $13 215d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 SELL Yes 11¢ $10 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.2% -22.4% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 3 -14.2% -22.4% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 9 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 33% -15.9%
all 56 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 34% -14.0%
10% -36.0% 23% -22.2%
15% -42.2% 11% -29.7%
20% -47.8% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records