Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9451…c12f sports 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,321 (-7%) realized −$3,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%182W / 131L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$472est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$2,038
14 days−$2,078
30 days−$3,001
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,402
other 17% −$1,240
crypto 3% −$127
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.3% -20.6% 62% 17% -34.0%
≤30d 170 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 27% -18.1%
≤90d 313 -16.2% -24.2% 58% 27% -13.1%
all 313 -16.2% -24.2% 58% 27% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 27% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 14% -21.4%
15% -38.1% 8% -29.0%
20% -44.2% 6% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$53 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses182 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$472
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 315
History coverage59d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $25 −$16 -64%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $120 +$9 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $172 +$35 +20%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $474 −$120 -25%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $224 −$89 -40%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $374 +$11 +3%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $351 +$28 +8%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $165 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $431 −$3 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$8 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,122 −$652 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,608 −$1,237 -34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 −$4 -25%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $30 −$10 -33%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $37 −$16 -42%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL GamerLegion 28¢ $9 48m
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 75¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 76¢ $23 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 65¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $106 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 96¢ $100 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 80¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 75¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 65¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 47¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $207 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 29h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 71¢ $9 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 29h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 65¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 62¢ $5 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 95¢ $170 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 5¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $150 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $150 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 25¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 99¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 20¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 55¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 79¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL FOKUS 22¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 43¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 79¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 1446 history records