Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x9453…2c81 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$2
sports 26% −$2
other 20% +$6
economics 12% −$1
tech 12% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +2.6%
≤30d 3 +19.1% +7.7% 67% 67% +6.1%
≤90d 8 +7.2% -3.0% 62% 25% -2.7%
all 38 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage402d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 25 $28 +$7 +26%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 March 23-29? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on February 3? Mar 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti Jan 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 6? Jan 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $943 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on January 6? Jan 09 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $880 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 30 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 30 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 30 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6? Dec 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 1? Dec 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the most streamed song glo Dec 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 29? Sep 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in July? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will Harry Kane win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $172 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? May 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 24d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 30d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 54d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $35 54d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 54d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? SELL No 100¢ $38 58d
Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 100¢ $13 58d
Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 100¢ $25 58d
Will Solana dip to $20 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $17 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 86d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $56 136d
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti SELL No 100¢ $38 147d
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti BUY No 100¢ $38 147d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $48 160d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $48 160d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 165d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $879 165d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $24 165d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $300 165d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 165d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $580 165d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $891 165d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $9 165d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $898 165d
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $11 165d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $923 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.46 · official $26.46 (match) · 105 history records