Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9454…14e5 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$308 (+18%) realized +$265 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$158
other 27% +$259
crypto 3% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤30d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤90d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% +21.8%
all 9 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 67% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 67% +21.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 56% +10.2%
15% -27.7% 44% -0.5%
20% -34.7% 22% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 79¢ 100¢ $653 $828 +$175 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 65¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $182 +$68 +38%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $74 +$26 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $349 +$288 +83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 +$18 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $73 +$27 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $3 48m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $24 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $0 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $8 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $13 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $184 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $170 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $8 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $85 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $43 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 69¢ $70 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $62 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $59 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $182 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $44 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $4 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $55 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $15 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $349 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $49 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $60 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $44 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $82 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $14 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $22 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $30 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.28 · official $828.28 (match) · 38 history records