Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9455…b9de
other · 39 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $9 −$3 -40%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $210 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $1 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Sep 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $3 $0 -7%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 37% $0
other 17% −$4
politics 17% $0
world 9% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $17 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $41 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $51 93d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 93d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 95d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 95d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $68 95d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $68 95d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $81 95d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $129 95d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $210 95d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 98¢ $7 248d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $17 248d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL No 99¢ $3 248d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 97¢ $4 248d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 98¢ $7 249d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $7 249d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $7 249d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $7 249d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $7 249d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $5 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.60 · official $3.25 (match) · 122 history records