Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

94 0x9459…4f36 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$568per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$972now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-9.7%	-18.3%	50%	50%	-10.4%
≤30d	4	-9.7%	-18.3%	50%	50%	-10.4%
≤90d	4	-9.7%	-18.3%	50%	50%	-10.4%
all	4	-9.7%	-18.3%	50%	50%	-10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.3%	50%	-10.4%
10%	-26.1%	50%	-19.0%
15%	-33.2%	50%	-26.8%
20%	-39.8%	25%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$384 vs −$393 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.98 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$972

Realized+$3

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage7d

Avg bet$568

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$980	$972	−$8 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$199	−$195	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$644	+$307	+48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$599	−$591	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$406	+$461	+114%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$992	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$199	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$951	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$644	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$599	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$867	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$406	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $971.91 · official $971.91 (match) · 7 history records