Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945a…a881 other 47 markets active 5h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,266 (-32%) realized −$1,266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$526
sports 44% −$750
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -41.6% -47.2% 28% 21% -39.6%
≤30d 47 -41.6% -47.2% 28% 21% -39.6%
≤90d 47 -41.6% -47.2% 28% 21% -39.6%
all 47 -41.6% -47.2% 28% 21% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 21% -39.6%
10% -52.3% 19% -45.4%
15% -56.9% 11% -50.7%
20% -61.1% 9% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$53 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $514 +$39 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$51 +250%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$56 +276%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $503 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$33 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $606 +$37 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$192 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $552 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 11h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 24h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 37h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 38h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 39h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $32 39h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $581 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records