Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945b…b561 crypto 948 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%543W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$37
14 days−$51
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$5
sports 22% +$26
other 11% −$48
weather 3% −$5
politics 2% −$6
finance 2% +$2
world 1% +$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 46% -19.1%
≤30d 373 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 47% -16.3%
≤90d 942 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 51% -11.1%
all 942 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 51% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 51% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -19.6%
15% -30.7% 26% -27.4%
20% -37.5% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses543 / 399
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)942 / 948
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -76%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1 $0 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -47%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 51m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 54m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.08 · official $6.08 (match) · 2403 history records