Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945c…13c9 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 24% $0
politics 18% +$1
sports 7% −$10
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 1% -9.4%
all 79 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage491d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $142 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $36 +$2 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $72 +$3 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $106 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $45 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $156 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1 $0 +24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $39 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $39 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $39.10 (match) · 328 history records