Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945d…4c3d crypto 27 markets active 18h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,026 (-5%) realized −$2,262 · open +$1,236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2,693
crypto 45% +$1,404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +13.4% +2.6% 23% 23% -28.0%
≤30d 26 +13.4% +2.6% 23% 23% -28.0%
≤90d 26 +13.4% +2.6% 23% 23% -28.0%
all 26 +13.4% +2.6% 23% 23% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 23% -28.0%
10% -7.2% 23% -34.9%
15% -16.2% 23% -41.2%
20% -24.4% 23% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$551) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late +78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,303 vs −$517 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$6,717
Realized−$2,262
Unrealized+$1,236
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5,481 $6,717 +$1,236 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $551 −$551 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$626 +613%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $360 −$350 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $745 −$700 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $640 −$600 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $501 +$3,522 +704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $571 −$571 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $453 −$431 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $595 −$561 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $379 +$1,192 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $322 −$304 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $528 +$1,528 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $314 +$490 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $491 −$460 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $344 −$325 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $513 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $492 −$479 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $188 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $841 −$700 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $211 +$459 +218%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2,664 −$2,600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $979 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $66 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,059 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $236 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $315 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $102 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $360 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $71 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $36 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $75 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $32 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $80 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $107 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $71 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $36 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $107 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $107 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $84 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $77 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,716.52 · official $6,716.52 (match) · 135 history records