Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945d…57bf sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$4
politics 20% −$4
other 19% −$2
crypto 8% $0
culture 7% −$1
economics 6% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 158 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage156d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 96¢ 92¢ $41 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $129 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $103 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $279 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 8d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $41 20d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $41 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $44 35d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $44 35d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 80d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 80d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $41 80d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $41 81d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $40 81d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $40 81d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 120d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 120d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $41 120d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $41 120d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $43 120d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 120d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $4 120d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $43 120d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $4 120d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $6 120d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $49 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $45 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $45 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.50 (match) · 751 history records