Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9460…5dbd world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$5
other 26% +$6
politics 5% −$3
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -2.2% -11.5% 26% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -8.9%
10% -20.0% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage469d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $4 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $15 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $11 +$6 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $46 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $13 16h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $42 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $34 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.94 · official $40.94 (match) · 132 history records