Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9460…5b99 world 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$2
other 10% −$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.8% -0.6% 67% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +4.7% -5.3% 58% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +4.7% -5.3% 58% 8% -9.2%
all 42 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $65 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $138 +$1 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $96 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $9 $0 -2%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Titans draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $13 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $13 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $12 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 16m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 16m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 18m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $21 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $20 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $43 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $3 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $45 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $49 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $45 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.51 · official $14.14 (match) · 141 history records