Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9467…1067 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-1%) realized −$186 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate68%30W / 14L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$74
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$30
economics 23% +$118
sports 18% −$223
world 15% +$40
crypto 11% −$53
politics 5% +$75
finance 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -56.9% -61.0% 25% 25% -53.2%
≤90d 17 +82.6% +65.3% 47% 35% -19.5%
all 44 +25.7% +13.7% 68% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 18% -10.6%
10% +2.8% 16% -19.1%
15% -7.1% 11% -26.9%
20% -16.2% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,067) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$94 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses30 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage234d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $75 −$74 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $109 +$79 +72%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $104 −$102 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 12 $107 −$105 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $126 +$85 +67%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $113 −$111 -98%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Apr 23 $1,290 +$48 +4%
Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Kilian Feldbausch Apr 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $113 −$111 -98%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 22 $124 +$139 +113%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 11 $112 −$110 -98%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 03 $124 −$122 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $1,504 +$24 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 03 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 29 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $1,433 +$61 +4%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $20 +$1 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $316 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 18 $1,068 +$65 +6%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 15 $330 +$12 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $1,331 +$67 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $1,363 −$32 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $1,299 +$64 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 14 $1,251 +$48 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $1,083 +$49 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $139 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,067 +$68 +6%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 03 $1,159 +$47 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 18 $1,125 +$34 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,051 +$74 +7%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 02 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Nov 02 $1,031 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $19 +$1 +4%
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $279 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $309 +$133 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 30 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $14 +$3 +24%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? Oct 30 $18 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $264 +$2 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $897 +$15 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $70 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $75 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $80 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $104 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $109 29d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 43¢ $107 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $126 42d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 45¢ $113 49d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $286 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $395 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $11 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $1 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $1 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $10 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $9 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $9 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $3 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $8 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $3 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $3 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $8 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $5 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $72 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $10 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $10 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $46 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $8 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $10 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $1 56d
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Mark Lajal 56¢ $3 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.94 · official $67.94 (match) · 150 history records