Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9468…c84f weather 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$153 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$13
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 2% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -1.9% -11.3% 49% 1% -10.2%
≤90d 70 -1.9% -11.3% 49% 1% -10.2%
all 70 -1.9% -11.3% 49% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 1% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Open positions11
Markets (closed)70 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 22? No 95¢ 99¢ $68 $71 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 23? No 98¢ 99¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? No 0¢ 94¢ $0 $63 +$63 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 24? No 99¢ 98¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? No 0¢ 86¢ $0 $56 +$56 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 24? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $53 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $66 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $54 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $63 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 21 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 22? Jun 21 $63 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $59 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $35 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $24 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $24 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $23 10m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $63 56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $19 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $44 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.58 · official $584.58 (match) · 257 history records