Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x946e…1225
world · 163 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$36 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$278 · open +$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$424
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses19 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)152 / 163
History coverage35d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 11 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$96
14 days−$46
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $80 $149 +$69 (+86%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $90 $105 +$14 (+16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $70 $59 −$12 (-16%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-15%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-76%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -59%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$9 -59%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $113 −$14 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$253 +1642%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -91%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $15 −$2 -13%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$4 +7%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 12 $85 +$33 +39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 6? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 5? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$37 -85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 −$9 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $733 −$172 -24%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$9 -15%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 05 $42 −$5 -13%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $146 −$17 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $67 −$10 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $94 +$145 +155%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 05 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $40 −$5 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $84 −$5 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 04 $30 −$4 -14%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $19 −$2 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $128 −$3 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 31 $10 +$60 +600%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? May 31 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $98 −$33 -34%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 30? May 31 $7 −$5 -74%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $403 +$101 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $557 −$100 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $36 −$29 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,957 −$159 -8%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 29 $52 −$10 -19%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 29 $226 +$243 +108%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% +$111
other 16% −$418
economics 3% −$61
politics 3% −$126
tech 2% +$275
crypto 2% −$224
finance 1% −$21
sports 0% +$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 13m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 13m
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY No 1¢ $1 37m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 1¢ $1 37m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $76 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 1h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? SELL No 3¢ $4 1h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 9¢ $10 2h
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3h
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $8 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.5% +24.4% 15% 10% +5.1%
≤30d 120 +3.2% -6.6% 14% 11% -9.8%
≤90d 152 -7.2% -16.0% 12% 9% -11.6%
all 152 -7.2% -16.0% 12% 9% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 9% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 8% -20.1%
15% -31.4% 6% -27.8%
20% -38.1% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.73 · official $423.66 (match) · 1287 history records