Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x946f…08eb sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$661 (-9%) realized −$791 · open +$130
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days−$125
14 days+$317
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$724
other 26% +$339
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.0% -15.0% 28% 28% -14.7%
≤30d 72 +1.5% -8.1% 32% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 76 -3.2% -12.4% 30% 30% -19.5%
all 76 -3.2% -12.4% 30% 30% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 30% -19.5%
10% -20.8% 30% -27.2%
15% -28.4% 30% -34.2%
20% -35.5% 26% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$67 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 53
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 92
History coverage45d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 32¢ $30 $107 +$77 (+256%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 17¢ $30 $64 +$34 (+112%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $81 +$124 +152%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $26 +$131 +510%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 +$128 +140%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $91 +$96 +105%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 +$97 +474%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $142 +$101 +71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 +$116 +226%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $31 +$157 +510%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $61 +$85 +140%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$80 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $120 −$118 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $71 +$167 +234%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$107 +262%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 +$104 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes $31 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes $31 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $81 8h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 AND BUY 14¢ $123 19h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY 11¢ $144 23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $164 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 25h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 12¢ $82 34h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $91 36h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $91 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $92 36h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY $62 36h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $243 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $62 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $142 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 46h
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $21 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread BUY $113 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-0 BUY 19¢ $31 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $41 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY 41¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.42 · official $350.42 · 140 history records