Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x946f…a26c other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$61
14 days−$241
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$253
sports 35% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +53.1% +38.5% 71% 59% -3.7%
≤30d 33 +24.7% +12.8% 67% 61% -14.0%
≤90d 33 +24.7% +12.8% 67% 61% -14.0%
all 33 +24.7% +12.8% 67% 61% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 61% -14.0%
10% +2.0% 45% -22.3%
15% -7.8% 27% -29.8%
20% -16.9% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$90 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage21d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $564 −$209 -37%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$16 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$151 +982%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$52 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$45 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $80 +$18 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $33 +$6 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $357 −$357 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +30%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $60 +$16 +27%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $50 +$15 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$53 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 +$64 +63%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $200 +$83 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $89 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $211 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $119 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $101 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $15 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 65¢ $71 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 67¢ $101 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $151 6d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 28¢ $51 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 97¢ $117 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records