Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x946f…67c1 other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$503 (+4%) realized +$471 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate82%126W / 28L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$253
14 days+$324
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$522
sports 5% −$77
crypto 3% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +4.3% -5.6% 83% 30% -5.2%
≤30d 154 +4.0% -5.9% 82% 21% -5.3%
≤90d 154 +4.0% -5.9% 82% 21% -5.3%
all 154 +4.0% -5.9% 82% 21% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 21% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 9% -14.4%
15% -23.1% 5% -22.7%
20% -30.6% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$471
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses126 / 28
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage23d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 93¢ $70 $102 +$32 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 +$13 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 +$47 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $80 +$38 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$14 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 −$29 -12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $80 +$5 +7%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$6 +23%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$6 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $160 +$10 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 +$9 +6%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$21 -52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$73 +28%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$51 -64%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 −$23 -19%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $128 −$67 -52%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $280 +$13 +5%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 +$24 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $159 +$23 +14%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $281 −$9 -3%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 −$60 -25%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $415 −$42 -10%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $280 +$32 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 +$6 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $242 +$58 +24%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $110 +$15 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $286 +$102 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $240 +$3 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $46 $0 +1%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $210 +$13 +6%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $184 +$11 +6%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $102 +$3 +3%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $195 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 50¢ $194 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 52¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 52¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $38 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $38 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $39 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $39 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $38 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 46¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $85 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $122 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $39 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $40 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $38 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $40 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.64 · official $101.64 (match) · 1216 history records