Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9470…989d weather 137 markets active 6d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,969 (-7%) realized −$3,948 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate59%79W / 55L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,136
14 days−$2,138
30 days−$2,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$1,926
politics 8% −$141
world 8% −$791
other 6% −$921
sports 5% −$45
finance 4% −$525
tech 2% −$18
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 56% 11% -20.3%
≤30d 100 +7.7% -2.6% 60% 19% -14.3%
≤90d 134 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 18% -16.0%
all 134 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 18% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 18% -16.0%
10% -15.9% 9% -24.0%
15% -24.0% 7% -31.3%
20% -31.5% 5% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$125 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$3,948
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses79 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage62d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $176 $167 −$9 (-5%)
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+26%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,116 −$1,027 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 −$91 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$11 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,231 −$39 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $315 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $2,986 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $145 +$34 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +13%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $499 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $122 +$26 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1,911 +$45 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $801 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $1,121 −$1,114 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$6 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $502 +$90 +18%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 04 $112 −$112 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,182 +$41 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $304 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $176 −$7 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $335 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 +$12 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $576 +$5 +1%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $123 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $619 +$87 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $1,028 −$1,027 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $48 +$54 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $1,443 +$52 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $574 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $3,300 +$18 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $6,006 +$260 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $808 +$154 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $1,758 +$152 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $427 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $1,235 +$47 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $66 −$63 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $944 +$165 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $2,331 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 2¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 70¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 70¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 70¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 70¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $817 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.95 · official $186.95 (match) · 1140 history records