Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9472…2b2e crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (417 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%83W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day416.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,777
other 1% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (417 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 17% -55.8%
≤30d 337 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 17% -55.8%
≤90d 337 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 17% -55.8%
all 337 -54.8% -59.1% 25% 17% -55.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover416.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.1% 17% -55.8%
10% ← realistic here -63.0% 17% -60.0%
15% -66.6% 16% -63.9%
20% -69.9% 14% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -108% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -108% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses83 / 254
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)337 / 345
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day416.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 46¢ 44¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Llaneros FC vs. CA Bucaramanga: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$36 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$33 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$45 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$31 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$40 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$11 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$5 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$12 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $35 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $40 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $34 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.02 · official $51.30 (match) · 2007 history records