Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9476…f972 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,531 (-16%) realized −$1,037 · open −$494
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days−$816
14 days−$816
30 days−$2,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$82
other 23% −$1,411
sports 21% −$1,228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -50.6% -55.3% 25% 25% -46.6%
≤30d 46 -45.3% -50.5% 26% 22% -49.1%
≤90d 60 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 27% -37.1%
all 60 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 27% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 27% -37.1%
10% -47.5% 23% -43.1%
15% -52.6% 18% -48.6%
20% -57.2% 17% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$89 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized−$1,037
Unrealized−$494
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage30d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $640 $635 −$5 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 2¢ $500 $11 −$489 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $143 +$176 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $208 +$240 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $171 −$167 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $439 −$432 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $408 −$30 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $142 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $419 −$188 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$128 -56%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $200 −$195 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $242 +$37 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 28 $193 −$186 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $171 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 28 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 28 $37 −$19 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $84 +$24 +28%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $460 −$290 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $18 −$12 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $260 −$257 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $139 +$107 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $79 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 25 $119 −$25 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 25 $112 −$66 -59%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $294 −$133 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 25 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $105 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $293 −$33 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $220 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 25 $104 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 25 $135 +$33 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $109 −$25 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $116 −$110 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Talia Gibson vs Yulia Putintseva May 25 $230 −$225 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $260 +$49 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $262 +$383 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $53 −$50 -94%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $308 −$19 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $646 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $318 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 34¢ $171 6h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $439 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.96 · official $646.05 (match) · 284 history records