Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9479…cf2d crypto 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$49 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%470W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$19
14 days+$60
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$733
weather 23% +$178
sports 2% −$24
other 2% +$5
world 1% +$3
finance 0% −$50
politics 0% +$7
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 23 +2.3% -7.5% 91% 0% -5.5%
≤90d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 1% -8.2%
all 525 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 15% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses470 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)541 / 542
History coverage313d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? No 98¢ 96¢ $226 $222 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 24 $84 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $142 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $128 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $240 +$10 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $233 +$24 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $185 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $107 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $155 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $183 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 27? May 29 $134 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $190 −$14 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $175 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 24? May 24 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 22? May 23 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 17? May 18 $157 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 16? May 17 $111 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 15? May 15 $140 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 14? May 14 $117 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 10? May 10 $135 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? May 09 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 6? May 07 $53 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $122 +$2 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $14 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 3? May 03 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 1? May 02 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 30? Apr 30 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 29? Apr 29 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 28? Apr 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 25? Apr 26 $127 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or higher on April 24? Apr 24 $119 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23? Apr 23 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22? Apr 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 21? Apr 22 $184 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 20? Apr 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $65 51m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $32 56m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $36 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $47 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $23 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $49 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.94 · official $221.94 (match) · 2320 history records