Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x947a…cd42
weather · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$53 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$101
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $51 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$40 +1880%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $26 −$12 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $26 +$38 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$45 +97%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $37 +$49 +133%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$42 +265%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 04 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$8
sports 4% −$41
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 64¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 88¢ $62 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 42¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $15 36h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on June BUY Yes 0¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY No 66¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 29¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 54¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 51¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 44¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 57¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 59¢ $15 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 BUY No 27¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +17.2% +6.0% 33% 33% -24.8%
≤30d 49 +15.2% +4.2% 29% 27% -14.3%
≤90d 49 +15.2% +4.2% 29% 27% -14.3%
all 49 +15.2% +4.2% 29% 27% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 27% -14.3%
10% -5.7% 24% -22.5%
15% -14.8% 20% -30.0%
20% -23.2% 16% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.69 · official $4.69 (match) · 111 history records