Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x947a…aa63 politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+9%) realized +$65 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$54
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 100% +2.5%
≤30d 5 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 60% -0.2%
≤90d 5 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 60% -0.2%
all 5 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 60% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 60% -0.2%
10% -9.7% 20% -9.7%
15% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
20% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.63 per $1 lost it wins $7.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage22d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $177 $176 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $160 +$21 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $127 +$33 +26%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 07 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 31 $99 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.63 · official $175.63 (match) · 11 history records