Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x947c…9a5c crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$562 (-21%) realized −$529 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%122W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$11
14 days−$15
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$105
finance 23% −$178
world 17% −$69
other 16% −$82
politics 6% −$88
culture 3% −$69
sports 1% −$3
tech 1% −$9
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 43% -1.0%
≤30d 62 -32.3% -38.8% 35% 29% -41.4%
≤90d 304 -23.8% -31.0% 36% 30% -37.8%
all 329 -21.1% -28.6% 37% 30% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 30% -30.1%
10% -35.4% 25% -36.8%
15% -41.7% 19% -42.9%
20% -47.4% 13% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$529
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses122 / 207
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)329 / 345
History coverage141d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+62%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 41¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Something 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 34¢ 2¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $13 +$14 +106%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +128%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -9%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +69%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$2 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +29%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $2 −$2 -90%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +69%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -97%
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 03 $0 $0 +14%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $100 −$61 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $161 −$110 -68%
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "CIA" this week? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "European Union" be said during the next episode of the All-In Po May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 26 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 8m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 36m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 16h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 16h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 16h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 16h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $2 22h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 22h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 22h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 22h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 3d
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.96 · official $86.97 (match) · 1087 history records