Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9481…3c77 crypto 297 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%211W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$4
other 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -2.3% -11.6% 90% 18% -8.2%
≤30d 232 -2.8% -12.1% 75% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 297 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 36% -10.4%
all 297 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 36% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 36% -10.4%
10% -22.3% 20% -19.0%
15% -29.8% 8% -26.8%
20% -36.7% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses211 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage36d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $65 −$47 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $216 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $38 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$25 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$11 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 733 history records