Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9483…d54a sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$105 (+21%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$33
other 27% +$82
crypto 10% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.5% +25.4% 75% 75% +6.2%
≤30d 8 +38.5% +25.4% 75% 75% +6.2%
≤90d 8 +38.5% +25.4% 75% 75% +6.2%
all 8 +38.5% +25.4% 75% 75% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 75% +6.2%
10% +13.4% 75% -3.9%
15% +2.4% 75% -13.2%
20% -7.6% 62% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$53 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$5 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$35 +49%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $90 +$61 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$26 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $96 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $101 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $106 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 62¢ $20 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $151 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $90 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records