Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x9484…707d other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 32% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 7 +1.3% -8.4% 29% 14% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 25% -8.9%
all 28 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 11% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 11% -7.5%
10% -14.2% 4% -16.3%
15% -22.5% 4% -24.4%
20% -30.1% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage490d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $21 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $14 $0 -1%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Mar 20 $6 +$7 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $15 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $10 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 32h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $31.20 (match) · 83 history records