Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9484…a173 other 610 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$850 (+5%) realized +$855 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%133W / 491L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$152
14 days+$290
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$386
politics 12% +$211
weather 8% +$150
crypto 7% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -40.6% -46.2% 12% 12% +10.2%
≤30d 137 -26.8% -33.7% 15% 15% +13.8%
≤90d 390 -34.8% -41.0% 12% 12% -24.3%
all 624 -6.1% -15.0% 21% 17% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 17% -7.2%
10% -23.1% 16% -16.0%
15% -30.6% 14% -24.1%
20% -37.4% 12% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$13 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses133 / 491
Open positions5
Markets (closed)624 / 610
History coverage152d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$2 -161%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $26 +$71 +276%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$118 +273%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 +$24 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$19 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$125 +1185%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $7 −$4 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $96 27h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 27h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $58 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 3190 history records