Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9487…c82e sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$119 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$175
14 days+$175
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$32
other 33% +$54
world 7% +$31
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.5% -2.7% 100% 27% -4.3%
≤30d 13 -8.8% -17.5% 85% 23% -6.4%
≤90d 13 -8.8% -17.5% 85% 23% -6.4%
all 13 -8.8% -17.5% 85% 23% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 23% -6.4%
10% -25.4% 0% -15.4%
15% -32.6% 0% -23.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage24d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Over 94¢ 81¢ $420 $362 −$58 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $419 +$9 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $377 +$23 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $360 +$13 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$3 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $331 +$29 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $308 +$24 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $280 +$12 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $288 +$7 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $284 +$4 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $252 +$31 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $421 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $428 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $419 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $377 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $19 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $360 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $360 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $331 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $332 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $301 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $292 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $280 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $294 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $288 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $288 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $284 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $283 3d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider SELL Aryna Sabalenka $2 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 35¢ $16 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 72¢ $9 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $40 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $252 21d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.83 · official $361.83 (match) · 31 history records