Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9488…c7b6 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$361 (+6%) realized +$364 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$232
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$54
crypto 4% +$149
sports 3% +$18
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 39% -3.6%
≤30d 46 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 41% -5.2%
≤90d 46 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 41% -5.2%
all 46 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 41% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -5.2%
10% -26.4% 28% -14.3%
15% -33.6% 24% -22.6%
20% -40.1% 22% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$41 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized+$364
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage11d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $420 $417 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $24 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $102 −$30 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $351 +$51 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 −$9 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $820 +$139 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$14 -88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $452 +$116 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $411 +$30 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$76 -75%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $398 +$63 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $261 +$136 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $239 +$23 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $162 +$74 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +344%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $364 −$253 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $213 +$149 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$76 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $193 +$23 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$9 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 28m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 30m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $460 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 59m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $42 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 34¢ $54 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $402 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 41h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $351 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 44h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.88 · official $446.88 (match) · 102 history records