Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9489…571d politics 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$16
sports 15% $0
crypto 8% −$5
tech 4% $0
other 3% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.1% +19.5% 100% 20% -4.7%
≤30d 18 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 22% -11.2%
≤90d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 21% -10.6%
all 86 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -10.1%
10% -22.1% 5% -18.7%
15% -29.6% 5% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage633d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 21 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +152%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $1 +$3 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jan 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rubén Costas win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 6? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 6? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 28d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 28d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 28d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $4 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $1 28d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 28d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $5 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 98d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $53 98d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $53 98d
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 98d
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.91 · official $41.91 (match) · 265 history records