Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x9489…37d8 other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$993 (+0%) realized +$993 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%32W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,553per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days+$7
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$300
politics 34% −$97
sports 15% +$778
economics 3% −$8
world 3% −$8
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +8.2% -2.1% 17% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 114 -5.3% -14.3% 10% 6% -9.8%
all 156 +7.8% -2.5% 21% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 15% -9.2%
10% -11.8% 15% -17.9%
15% -20.3% 13% -25.8%
20% -28.1% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,355) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$10 · ×6.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$993
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses32 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,553
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $273 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,290 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,296 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,568 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $3,154 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $4,368 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,595 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,937 −$5 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $85 +$58 +67%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $75 +$38 +50%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,763 −$3 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $80 +$49 +62%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $835 +$1 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,213 −$6 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,974 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $73 +$71 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $58 +$101 +172%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $6,027 −$6 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,555 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,488 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 3h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 26h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 30h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 32h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,565 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,567 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,652 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,654 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,654 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,528 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,700 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,541 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,543 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 507 history records