Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x948a…d1a4 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,407 (-10%) realized −$4,407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 51L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$569est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$6,557
crypto 16% −$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.2% -63.1% 0% 0% -64.8%
≤30d 4 -59.2% -63.1% 0% 0% -64.8%
≤90d 90 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 42% -25.6%
all 90 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 42% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 42% -25.6%
10% -25.2% 38% -32.8%
15% -32.4% 30% -39.3%
20% -39.0% 27% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$637) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$385 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$569
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage72d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $262 −$26 -10%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $740 −$199 -27%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $1,001 −$991 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 13 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 13 $237 +$63 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 13 $187 +$54 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 13 $155 +$32 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 13 $45 +$58 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 13 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $28 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 13 $544 −$481 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 13 $949 −$938 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 13 $549 +$401 +73%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 11 $233 −$230 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 10 $610 −$600 -98%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 10 $407 −$145 -36%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 10 $459 −$446 -97%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner May 10 $1,413 +$379 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $219 −$215 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 08 $143 +$73 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 08 $126 +$21 +17%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 08 $1,798 −$990 -55%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 08 $102 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage May 07 $605 +$522 +86%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner May 07 $283 +$322 +114%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage May 07 $101 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner May 07 $707 −$700 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 06 $961 −$949 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner May 06 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner May 06 $2,068 −$1,100 -53%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win - Game 2 Winner May 06 $1,924 −$100 -5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 06 $1,388 −$1,100 -79%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner May 05 $102 +$148 +146%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 05 $509 +$676 +133%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 05 $1,004 +$1,283 +128%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 04 $611 −$600 -98%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 04 $1,109 −$1,098 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 04 $1,290 +$1,426 +111%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 04 $925 +$1,370 +148%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner May 03 $643 −$637 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner May 03 $1,587 −$1,561 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 03 $1,116 −$1,100 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 03 $253 +$170 +67%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Grou May 03 $354 −$350 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner May 03 $770 −$259 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 87¢ $3 59m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $279 59m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 83¢ $233 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 76¢ $233 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 84¢ $262 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle 24¢ $262 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 57¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 55¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 51¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 51¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 44¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 36¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $92 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $202 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $300 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $152 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $60 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $242 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records