Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x948d…74e0 politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$2
crypto 4% $0
other 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 10 -12.4% -20.8% 10% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 0% -10.9%
10% -28.3% 0% -19.4%
15% -35.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -41.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage241d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 09 $19 $0 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 09 $15 −$12 -81%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Oct 24 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33m
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 2h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 4h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 6h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 6h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 9h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 12h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 13h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 19h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 21h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $19 133d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 133d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 178d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $19 178d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 213d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 213d
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether SELL No 100¢ $49 241d
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether BUY No 100¢ $49 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $3.45 (match) · 29 history records