Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9492…e8da sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$396 (+17%) realized +$424 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$110
other 49% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.1% +9.6% 100% 80% +10.4%
≤30d 10 +21.1% +9.6% 100% 80% +10.4%
≤90d 10 +21.1% +9.6% 100% 80% +10.4%
all 10 +21.1% +9.6% 100% 80% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 80% +10.4%
10% -0.9% 50% -0.2%
15% -10.5% 10% -9.8%
20% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) DR Congo 87¢ 86¢ $267 $262 −$5 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 66¢ $260 $237 −$23 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 +$84 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 +$23 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$16 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$50 +24%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $288 +$70 +24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $237 +$51 +21%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $92 +$9 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$22 +24%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $147 +$38 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 87¢ $268 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $262 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $211 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $212 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $171 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $252 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $156 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 16h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $288 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $237 43h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $122 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 81¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $115 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $92 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $93 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $185 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 75¢ $147 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.52 · official $498.52 (match) · 22 history records