Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9494…e592 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 26% +$12
politics 18% +$1
sports 17% −$12
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 63 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 2% -9.2%
all 71 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage523d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $87 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $32 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $41 +$4 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $16 −$2 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $49 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $97 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $49 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $97 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.70 · official $36.84 · 317 history records