Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9495…9a27
sports · 159 markets active 8d ago
0.0score
−$4,804,699 -301%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,728,269 · open −$76,430
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58,656
Realized−$4,728,269
Unrealized−$76,430
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses149 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$20,657
Open positions2
Markets (closed)592 / 159
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10,050
Trades / day3385.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 592 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,357,019
7 days−$4,357,019
14 days−$4,728,269
30 days−$4,728,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 19¢ $103,541 $30,926 −$72,616 (-70%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 52¢ 30¢ $9,015 $5,201 −$3,814 (-42%)
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) FC Barcelona 35¢ 100¢ $614 $1,754 +$1,140 (+186%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 45¢ 100¢ $752 $1,662 +$909 (+121%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 63¢ 100¢ $1,033 $1,645 +$613 (+59%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ 100¢ $1,330 $1,615 +$286 (+22%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 42¢ 100¢ $670 $1,582 +$912 (+136%)
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $755 $1,452 +$697 (+92%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 100¢ $884 $1,450 +$565 (+64%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Cavaliers 44¢ 100¢ $562 $1,271 +$709 (+126%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 46¢ 100¢ $509 $1,115 +$606 (+119%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $385 $740 +$355 (+92%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5) Los Angeles Angels 40¢ 100¢ $280 $700 +$420 (+150%)
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-10? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $252 $699 +$448 (+178%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $363 $685 +$322 (+89%)
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Under 61¢ 100¢ $348 $571 +$222 (+64%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 100¢ $282 $532 +$250 (+89%)
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $214 $436 +$222 (+104%)
1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Lakers 46¢ 100¢ $194 $422 +$228 (+117%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ 100¢ $245 $295 +$50 (+20%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $120 $255 +$135 (+113%)
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Knicks 51¢ 100¢ $127 $249 +$122 (+96%)
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 60¢ 100¢ $144 $242 +$98 (+68%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 100¢ $100 $233 +$133 (+132%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ 100¢ $130 $206 +$76 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 12 $614 +$1,140 +186%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 12 $752 +$909 +121%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,330 +$286 +22%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $16,220 −$16,220 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $755 +$697 +92%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 12 $562 +$709 +126%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 12 $509 +$606 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $385 +$355 +92%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5) Jun 12 $280 +$420 +150%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $252 +$448 +178%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $363 +$322 +89%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 12 $282 +$250 +89%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $214 +$222 +104%
1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 12 $194 +$228 +117%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $245 +$50 +20%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 12 $120 +$135 +113%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 12 $127 +$122 +96%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $144 +$98 +68%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $130 +$76 +58%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 12 $1,498 −$1,498 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $88 +$95 +108%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$78 +79%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 12 $128 +$30 +24%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $63 +$94 +150%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $92 +$61 +67%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 104.5 Jun 12 $57 +$60 +105%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $69 +$39 +56%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 105.5 Jun 12 $55 +$53 +96%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 12 $55 +$53 +96%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $28 +$72 +257%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 12 $70 +$14 +20%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $60 +$19 +32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $39 +$27 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $26 +$40 +156%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 12 $44 +$18 +41%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $32 +$26 +79%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 12 $26 +$21 +79%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 12 $18 +$27 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $11 +$26 +238%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $23 +$13 +56%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$20 +178%
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) Jun 12 $21 +$9 +43%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 +$20 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$443,866
other 1% −$3,814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2,878 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $661 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,223 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $158 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $472 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,830 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $149 8d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 46¢ $505 8d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 44¢ $357 8d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $1 8d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $5 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $20 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $4 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $8 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $4 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $4 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 79¢ $4 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 20¢ $0 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 20¢ $1 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 20¢ $1 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 20¢ $400 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 55¢ $43 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $102 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $501 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Phoenix Mercury 65¢ $1,002 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 34¢ $2 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 34¢ $236 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 35¢ $63 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 35¢ $2 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 39¢ $1,200 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 470 -71.2% -73.9% 14% 14% -99.7%
≤30d 592 -44.3% -49.6% 25% 25% -82.3%
≤90d 592 -44.3% -49.6% 25% 25% -82.3%
all 592 -44.3% -49.6% 25% 25% -82.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3385.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.6% 25% -82.3%
10% -54.5% 23% -84.0%
15% ← realistic here -58.9% 22% -85.5%
20% -62.9% 21% -86.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,655.63 · official $58,653.18 (match) · 3500 history records