Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9495…468f
other · 548 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,084 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,872 · open −$133
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$847
Realized−$3,872
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses105 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions44
Markets (closed)508 / 548
History coverage14d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day246.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 44 History 508 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$830
7 days−$2,871
14 days−$3,875
30 days−$3,872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $200 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $191 $188 −$3 (-2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $97 $87 −$11 (-11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 67¢ 44¢ $76 $50 −$25 (-34%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 44¢ 32¢ $37 $27 −$10 (-26%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-5%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 81¢ 80¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $22 $10 −$12 (-56%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 13¢ 10¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 32¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 40¢ 30¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 44¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 26¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 33¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-71%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 70¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $826 +$7 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $3 $0 +17%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 12 $434 −$5 -1%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $970 $0 -0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $520 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $569 +$9 +2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $106 −$21 -20%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $288 −$13 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $265 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2,700 −$217 -8%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $89 +$2 +3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $390 +$109 +28%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 12 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $24 −$9 -39%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $899 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $36 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$14 -10%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $337 −$16 -5%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $90 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $268 +$4 +2%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,016 +$3 +0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $233 +$3 +1%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $899 −$27 -3%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $47 −$4 -9%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$8 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $892 −$73 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $200 +$284 +142%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $764 −$4 -0%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 12 $0 $0 +7%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $40 −$4 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $87 −$2 -2%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,265 −$16 -1%
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$2,042
politics 23% −$934
world 21% −$453
tech 8% −$148
finance 7% −$271
crypto 5% −$44
sports 3% −$48
culture 2% −$33
economics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $2 2m
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 6m
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL Yes 82¢ $202 6m
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $8 8m
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 15¢ $4 10m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $130 12m
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 17m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 44¢ $11 21m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 44¢ $26 21m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 86¢ $1 31m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 86¢ $15 32m
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 48m
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 56m
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 89¢ $11 1h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $18 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 93¢ $95 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 2h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 81¢ $199 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 93¢ $95 2h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $22 2h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $2 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $186 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $54 3h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 5% -14.4%
≤30d 508 -6.7% -15.6% 21% 4% -14.3%
≤90d 508 -6.7% -15.6% 21% 4% -14.3%
all 508 -6.7% -15.6% 21% 4% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover246.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 4% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 2% -22.5%
15% -31.1% 2% -30.0%
20% -37.8% 1% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.17 · official $846.91 (match) · 3500 history records