Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x9497…556f sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+8%) realized +$181 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$177
sports 42% +$8
finance 2% −$29
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 15 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 58 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 45% -0.5%
all 72 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 44% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -2.9%
10% -22.5% 40% -12.2%
15% -30.0% 36% -20.6%
20% -36.8% 32% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage157d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 26¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$38 +185%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 07 $30 +$43 +139%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 06 $41 +$77 +188%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 +$11 +262%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 05 $7 +$4 +52%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 204.5 May 03 $30 +$30 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $53 −$51 -96%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $20 +$33 +165%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) Apr 17 $26 −$26 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $22 +$4 +18%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $11 +$11 +97%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Apr 16 $44 −$37 -85%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 16 $41 −$36 -88%
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5) Apr 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 12 $100 +$49 +49%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 12 $12 +$27 +224%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $15 +$39 +262%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Apr 08 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $25 −$23 -90%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Apr 05 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY 51¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $15 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $34 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $26 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $52 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 57¢ $30 5d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 41¢ $20 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 6d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 40d
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 40d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $73 40d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 41¢ $30 41d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 41d
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 41d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.50 · official $12.50 (match) · 127 history records