Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a3…67e3 economics 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,321 (+12%) realized +$3,190 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%102W / 67L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$154
14 days+$138
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% +$1,860
other 27% +$556
sports 9% +$89
politics 3% +$11
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 14% -33.5%
≤30d 15 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 31 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 29% -7.0%
all 169 +7.8% -2.5% 60% 44% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 44% -1.7%
10% -11.8% 27% -11.1%
15% -20.3% 17% -19.7%
20% -28.2% 8% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$19 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$3,190
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses102 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)169 / 175
History coverage599d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $413 $422 +$9 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 25¢ $59 $243 +$183 (+308%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 38¢ $43 $92 +$49 (+114%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $175 $55 −$120 (-69%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+85%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -58%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 22 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $31 −$18 -58%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $245 +$24 +10%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $239 −$154 -64%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $938 +$128 +14%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$15 +49%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $969 +$120 +12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $199 +$28 +14%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 08 $681 −$45 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $74 −$23 -31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? May 25 $270 +$20 +7%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju May 22 $14 +$3 +23%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m May 22 $52 +$17 +34%
ECB rate hike in 2026? May 18 $39 −$30 -76%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee May 08 $52 −$33 -64%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 07 $501 −$33 -7%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Apr 30 $996 +$66 +7%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $594 +$108 +18%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Apr 27 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $4 $0 -1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 21 $176 +$17 +10%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? Apr 13 $13 −$5 -38%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 13 $51 −$29 -56%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting Apr 12 $147 +$11 +7%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $62 −$13 -21%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 23 $1,894 +$226 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 18 $620 +$100 +16%
Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meetin Mar 18 $87 −$46 -53%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $1,879 +$349 +19%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 16 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 06 $223 −$55 -25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Feb 25 $15 −$2 -14%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Feb 24 $272 +$94 +35%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Feb 20 $79 +$29 +37%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $28 +$27 +98%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 27 $130 −$9 -7%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $7 −$3 -44%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $1,397 +$192 +14%
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be negative? Jan 12 $5 +$3 +60%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meet Jan 03 $120 +$14 +12%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Dec 23 $26 +$3 +13%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the December meeting? Dec 19 $160 +$17 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 54m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 39¢ $243 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 25¢ $699 2h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 17h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $77 17h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 20h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $178 20h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $156 20h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $11 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 90¢ $269 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $25 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $22 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $839.06 · official $839.74 (match) · 1131 history records