Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94a5…abfb weather 1022 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%984W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day168.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$463
7 days−$434
14 days−$300
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -4.0% -13.2% 96% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 1002 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1002 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 1002 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$26 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3,976
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses984 / 18
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1002 / 1022
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day168.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 1? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 9? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27? Jun 16 $391 −$391 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 30 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June BUY No 100¢ $26 10m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June BUY No 100¢ $24 12m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $39 15m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $17 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,976.29 · official $3,976.03 (match) · 3500 history records