Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x94a5…4eb8 sports 722 markets active 6h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$992 (+1%) realized +$964 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%316W / 391L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$973est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$403
14 days+$333
30 days+$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$333
other 24% −$429
world 12% +$333
politics 2% +$254
finance 1% +$89
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +6.4% -3.8% 39% 24% -7.2%
≤30d 269 +4.8% -5.2% 45% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 707 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 38% -9.0%
all 707 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 38% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 35% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 31% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$964
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses316 / 391
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$973
Open positions15
Markets (closed)707 / 722
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$132
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 95¢ $89 $111 +$22 (+25%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $79 $99 +$20 (+26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $80 $49 −$31 (-38%)
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? Yes 70¢ 85¢ $35 $42 +$8 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 51¢ 56¢ $31 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Hanwha Eagles 40¢ 53¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? No 78¢ 100¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+28%)
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 22¢ 31¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 80¢ 56¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Lotte Giants 40¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 15 $285 −$6 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $32 +$28 +90%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $95 −$91 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,676 −$10 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $7 +$23 +358%
Will Thomas Meunier be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $91 +$2 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $65 −$1 -2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $57 +$53 +92%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $45 +$51 +114%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $471 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,557 +$32 +2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $56 +$64 +113%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $57 +$73 +127%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -8%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $124 −$16 -13%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $55 −$2 -4%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $29 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $88 −$47 -54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $82 +$48 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $76 +$44 +57%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $255 −$15 -6%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $68 −$1 -2%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $56 +$64 +113%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $74 +$56 +75%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $94 −$2 -2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $125 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $58 +$62 +108%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $189 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 51¢ $31 7h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $50 7h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 10h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 66¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $16 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $0 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $4 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 48¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 56¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $32 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $3 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $1,666 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1,676 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $42 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $61 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm SELL Zachary Svajda 54¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm SELL Zachary Svajda 54¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.23 · official $584.23 (match) · 3500 history records