Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a7…6000 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$192 (+8%) realized +$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 57L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$31
other 33% +$326
politics 6% −$45
crypto 6% −$71
world 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.3% -24.3% 48% 48% -6.5%
≤30d 29 -16.3% -24.3% 48% 48% -6.5%
≤90d 113 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +1.7%
all 115 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 50% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 50% -1.1%
10% -19.2% 50% -10.6%
15% -27.0% 49% -19.2%
20% -34.1% 43% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 57
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage96d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -94%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $51 +$31 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$20 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$21 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Nicolai May 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Cagliari: Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz May 02 $2 +$1 +93%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 +$2 +140%
Aix en Provence: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Kimmer Coppejans May 01 $2 +$1 +85%
La Bisbal: Antonia Ruzic vs Sara Sorribes Tormo May 01 $2 +$1 +90%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Mauthausen: Roman Safiullin vs Titouan Droguet Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils Apr 30 $5 −$1 -10%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Cagliari: Cristian Garin vs Nuno Borges Apr 30 $10 −$4 -44%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Francisco Comesana Apr 29 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $51 +$74 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 90¢ $35 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 52¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $20 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 24h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 42¢ $20 26h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 100¢ $29 26h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 68¢ $20 27h
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy SELL Elina Nepliy 81¢ $81 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records